Planning and preparing for all types of severe weather makes sense each spring, but the odds that your home will be struck by a tornado are actually very small.
TOLEDO, Ohio — Historic local tornado outbreaks like the Palm Sunday 1965, Anthony Wayne High School 1991, Van Wert and Tiffin 2002, and Millbury 2010 storms have shaped how we view severe storms.
These storms and dates bring back devastating memories to families of northwest Ohio. Naturally, these same storms also tend to create a fear about when the next tornado strikes. Add to those memories the catastrophic images following fresh tornado disasters in Kentucky and Illinois late last year. And for some, the idea of severe storms can be near crippling, worrying about their safety and the safety of their loved ones.
Preparation and plans before severe weather are always the best idea. We know and expect storms every spring, summer and even fall. But have you ever wondered what are the actual chances a tornado will hit your specific house? It turns out the odds are low, even here on the edge of tornado alley. Let’s break down the numbers.
This map shows all the tornado touchdowns since 1950 in our area. When you break it down it comes out to an average of between three and four tornado touchdowns each year. The most common tornado is an EF-0, the weakest. The strongest tornado rating ever in our area is an EF-4. Tornadoes of this magnitude have occurred here several times. On average each year, those tornadoes damage an area of about a half-square mile typically with winds below 100 mph. There is roughly 6000 square miles in our area. This means your average chance to being hit by a twister on any given year are around 1 in 12,000.
But that’s your chance for any tornado. What about a strong tornado like an EF-4? Those simply don’t happen often in our area. Since 1950 there has only been a violent tornado around once every decade. While these tornadoes don’t touch down often, they do tend to stay on the ground for a long period of time.
The fact is tornadoes happen and we need to be prepared. But sitting on the far edge of tornado alley our chances are much lower than other parts of the country.
FAQs
Freak accidents happen; and the most violent tornadoes can level and blow away almost any house and its occupants. Extremely violent EF5 tornadoes are very rare, though. Even violent tornadoes have a survival rate of at least 99%. Most tornadoes are actually much weaker, and can be survived using these safety ideas...
What are the odds of a tornado in a tornado watch? ›
Back to Watch 6
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
Is a 2 chance of a tornado high? ›
Threat: A very low threat to life and property. Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a very low likelihood (or a 2 to 4% probability) of tornadoes; isolated tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible.
Is A tornado rare? ›
About 1,200 tornadoes hit the U.S. yearly. Since official tornado records only date back to 1950, we do not know the actual average number of tornadoes that occur each year.
Is a 5% tornado risk high? ›
The Storm Prediction Center defines the 5% risk as the “probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.” That means, as Swain explained, that while the chance of a tornado at any one geographic point remains low, the cumulative risk across the area is not insignificant.
Can you survive an f5 tornado in a basem*nt? ›
But while the most violent and rare EF-5 tornado can level and blow away almost any house, most tornadoes are much weaker and can be survived using some safety precautions – chiefly, taking advantage of a basem*nt if your home happens to have one.
What to do if a tornado picks you up? ›
Tornado Warning Safety Messages
- Avoid areas with many trees.
- Avoid vehicles.
- Lie down flat in a gully, ditch, or low spot on the ground.
- Protect your head with an object or with your arms.
- Move away from windows and glass doorways.
- Go to the innermost part of the building on the lowest possible floor.
Missouri – Matt Suter was 19 years old when he had an experience that he will never forget. He survived after being swept up inside a tornado. One of the tornadoes swept Matt Suter up and threw him nearly a quarter mile from his grandmother's home in Fordland, Missouri.
What is the rarest tornado ever? ›
3. They are rare. EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes are among the rarest cyclones on the planet.
What is a 2 tornado threat? ›
Severe Weather Risks
1-MRGL (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity. 2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
What is the 2 worst tornado in history? ›
On May 7 ,1840, the second deadliest tornado in the U.S. hit Natchez, Mississippi. It caused over 300 people to lose their lives.
Can a tornado split into two? ›
Tornado scientists now believe that most reports of several tornadoes at once, from news accounts and early 20th century tornado tales, actually were multivortex tornadoes. However, on rare occasions, separate tornadoes can form close to one another as satellite tornadoes.
What are the statistics of tornado? ›
In an average year, 800 tornadoes are reported nationwide, resulting in 80 deaths and 1500 injuries. Tornadoes can happen any time of the year and any time of the day.
What is a 10% tornado risk? ›
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an enhanced risk for severe weather, including a 10% hatched tornado probability. This signifies the potential for EF-2 or greater magnitude tornadoes, large hail exceeding 2″ in diameter, and damaging winds reaching 60 to 70 mph.
Can you survive being picked up by a tornado? ›
Yes, a man was swept up by a tornado, thrown 1,307 feet and survived. Here are the details. Missouri – Matt Suter was 19 years old when he had an experience that he will never forget. He survived after being swept up inside a tornado.
Can a human get caught in a tornado? ›
The not good news: tornados generate winds strong enough to smack you into solid objects, slam you to the ground, and then puncture and crush your tender body with big, heavy things like cars and pieces of what used to be buildings.
